Intuit Earnings Preview: EPS and Sales Expected to Be Up About 6%

May 16th, 2012
Intuit (INTU), which is well positioned to take advantage of the migration of small business to the cloud, is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter 2012 results tomorrow, May 17, after the end of the trading day.
The software provider has enjoyed double-digit year-over-year percentage revenue growth for the past four quarters. And some forecasts have double-digit year-over-year percentage earnings growth in each of the next three years. Though analysts' EPS estimates for the most recent quarter have slipped over the past month, analysts on average recommend buying shares.

Expectations

Analysts predict that Intuit will report per-share earnings of $2.48 for the quarter and say that its revenue totaled $1.96 billion. That would be up from $2.33 per share and $1.85 billion in sales in the same period of last year. Note that the EPS estimate is a penny less that it was 60 days ago. And Intuit's EPS results have not fallen short of analysts' consensus estimates in the past 10 quarters. The positive surprise in the second quarter was $.06 per share, or 13.3%.

Back in that second-quarter report, the company said its profit rose 61.6% year over year to $118 million or $0.39 per share. Revenue rose 16.1% to $1.02 billion, which also surpassed consensus expectations. Intuit said small businesses benefited from an improving economy and consumer tax revenue for the company's software was strong for the first month of the 2011 tax season. The company also raised its annual earnings forecast to $2.90 to $2.97 per share, compared to the $2.90 per share Wall Street view.

The full-year forecast now has EPS up 14.9% from the previous year to $2.95, as well as revenue 9.7% higher to $4.2 billion. And analysts so far expect to see year-over-year growth of both per-share earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter.

The Company

Intuit provides business and financial management solutions for small and medium-sized businesses, financial institutions, accounting professionals and consumers, primarily in the United States, Canada, India, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. The company's offerings include QuickBooks financial and business management software and TurboTax income tax preparation products and services. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mountain View, Calif. It is a component of the S&P 500 and has a market cap of $16.4 billion.

Competitors include Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Nuance Communications (NUAN), as well as H&R Block (HRB). Salesforce.com is expected to post double-digit year-over-year percentage EPS and sales revenue growth on Thursday. Nuance topped both EPS and sales estimates when it reported last week. H&R Block is expected to report earnings and sales declines for the most recent quarter, which included tax season.

During the three months that ended in April, Intuit launched a consumer banking app for the iPad and said it would acquire business software company Demandforce. Also, Jeff Weiner, CEO of LinkedIn (LNKD), joined its board of directors.

Performance

Intuit's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.5% and its price-to-earnings ratio is lower than the industry average. Its operating margin is higher than the industry average. Short interest is 6.4% of the float. Fourteen of 21 analysts who follow the stock recommend buying shares; none recommend selling them. Their mean price target is more than 11% higher than the current price.

At $55.49, shares are about 6% higher than at the beginning of the year. The stock briefly reached a multiyear high of $62.18 in February. Because of the recent pullback -- about 8% in the past month -- the share price is below the 50-day moving average. Over the past six months, the stock has outperformed H&R Block, Nuance Communications, and Salesforce.com, but underperformed the broader markets.

ACTION ITEMS

Bullish: Investors interested in exchange traded funds invested in Intuit might want to consider the following trades:
  • iShares S&P North America Tech-Software (IGV) is more than 13% higher year to date.
  • PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) is more than 13% higher year to date.
  • Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is more than 11% higher year to date.
Bearish: Traders may prefer to consider these alternative positions:
  • Tangoe (TNGO) is up more than 41% year to date.
  • Red Hat (RHT) is up more than 37% year to date.
  • SS&C Technologies (SSNC) is up more than 35% year to date.
  • CA Technologies (CA) is up more than 30% year to date.

Editor's Note: This content was originally published on Benzinga.com by Nelson Hem.



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Best of the Blogs, Consumer: New Google Search Function Smarter Than Ever

May 16th, 2012
This column highlights the most interesting and useful business and financial commentary for consumers from around the Web every Wednesday.
Mashable
Link: Google Search Just Got 1,000 Times Smarter
"The Google (GOOG) Search of the future is here. Now. Today. The long-talked-about sematic web - Google prefers 'Knowledge Graph' - is rolling out across all Google Search tools, and our most fundamental online task may never be the same again. Starting today, a vast portion of Google Search results will work with you to intuit what you really meant by that search entry. "
CNBC: Consumer Nation
Link: Fuel Prices Trump Unemployment as Risk to Retailers: Study
"Worries about fuel prices are trumping concerns about unemployment for US retailers, according to a BDO USA study. Unemployment had been a larger retailer concern since 2009. n the study, BDO looked at the most recent 10-k filings from the 100 largest public retailers in the US. The study found that 99 of the retailers cited general economic conditions as a potential risk to their business." (Also read Oil to Retailers: Pay Attention.)
The Consumerist
Link: Judge Cites Steve Jobs' Own Words In Refusing Dismissal Of E-Book Suit
"Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Jobs' words came back to haunt the electronics company today. Its attempt to have a judge dismiss charges of e-book price-fixing were refused, in part because of things Jobs said during his time with Apple. Apple, along with the owners of MacMillan and Penguin, still face charges from the Justice Dept. that they conspired to institute so called 'agency pricing,' in which the publisher - rather than the seller - determines the final retail price of an e-book." (For related content, see Amazon Is Tracking E-Book Passages Highlighted by Kindle Users.)
Stanford University School of Medecine: Scope
Link: In Animal Study, High-Fructose Diet Compromises Cognitive Function
"Here's some nutritional news that anyone who relies on cans of Coke (K) or Pepsi (PEP) to get through the day may want to pay attention to. In an animal study, UCLA investigators found that binging on soda and sugary treats for as little as six weeks appears to impair the brain's ability to learn and remember information. And, interestingly, the damage may be minimized by adding omega-3 fatty acids to one's diet." (Also read High-Fructose Corn Syrup Can Make You Both Fat and Stupid.)
New York Times: The 6th Floor
Link: A McDonald's Big Enough for Olympus
Tom Spiel acquired his first McDonald's (MCD) franchise in 1966: store No. 855, in Riverside, Calif. Since his wife, Candace, pushed to remodel it a couple years ago, their restaurant has become, as Keith O'Brien wrote in last weekend's magazine, the epitome of how McDonald's has been rebuilding its image - by making customers feel better about eating at McDonald's."

Twitter: @wont_tweet_ever

Best of the Blogs, Consumer: New Google Search Function Smarter Than Ever

May 16th, 2012
This column highlights the most interesting and useful business and financial commentary for consumers from around the Web every Wednesday.
Mashable
Link: Google Search Just Got 1,000 Times Smarter
"The Google (GOOG) Search of the future is here. Now. Today. The long-talked-about sematic web - Google prefers 'Knowledge Graph' - is rolling out across all Google Search tools, and our most fundamental online task may never be the same again. Starting today, a vast portion of Google Search results will work with you to intuit what you really meant by that search entry. "
CNBC: Consumer Nation
Link: Fuel Prices Trump Unemployment as Risk to Retailers: Study
"Worries about fuel prices are trumping concerns about unemployment for US retailers, according to a BDO USA study. Unemployment had been a larger retailer concern since 2009. n the study, BDO looked at the most recent 10-k filings from the 100 largest public retailers in the US. The study found that 99 of the retailers cited general economic conditions as a potential risk to their business." (Also read Oil to Retailers: Pay Attention.)
The Consumerist
Link: Judge Cites Steve Jobs' Own Words In Refusing Dismissal Of E-Book Suit
"Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Jobs' words came back to haunt the electronics company today. Its attempt to have a judge dismiss charges of e-book price-fixing were refused, in part because of things Jobs said during his time with Apple. Apple, along with the owners of MacMillan and Penguin, still face charges from the Justice Dept. that they conspired to institute so called 'agency pricing,' in which the publisher - rather than the seller - determines the final retail price of an e-book." (For related content, see Amazon Is Tracking E-Book Passages Highlighted by Kindle Users.)
Stanford University School of Medecine: Scope
Link: In Animal Study, High-Fructose Diet Compromises Cognitive Function
"Here's some nutritional news that anyone who relies on cans of Coke (K) or Pepsi (PEP) to get through the day may want to pay attention to. In an animal study, UCLA investigators found that binging on soda and sugary treats for as little as six weeks appears to impair the brain's ability to learn and remember information. And, interestingly, the damage may be minimized by adding omega-3 fatty acids to one's diet." (Also read High-Fructose Corn Syrup Can Make You Both Fat and Stupid.)
New York Times: The 6th Floor
Link: A McDonald's Big Enough for Olympus
Tom Spiel acquired his first McDonald's (MCD) franchise in 1966: store No. 855, in Riverside, Calif. Since his wife, Candace, pushed to remodel it a couple years ago, their restaurant has become, as Keith O'Brien wrote in last weekend's magazine, the epitome of how McDonald's has been rebuilding its image - by making customers feel better about eating at McDonald's."

Twitter: @wont_tweet_ever

The Facebook Effect: Why Facebook Might Still Grow Its Valuation or Justify It

May 16th, 2012
Sean Udall is the author of the TechStrat Report, a tech focused newsletter. The following is a free sample. Take a free trial!
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Facebook (FB) effect (the market euphorically embracing a new, possibly disruptive technology) has been around for some time. Without it we would likely not have seen the early investment success of many other names -- think Yelp (YELP), Groupon (GRPN), Angie's List, and Zynga (ZNGA), just to name a few.

(One could argue the "success" of Groupon, but there's no doubt that the company has already made early investors a lot of money. I also think it's too early to declare Groupon dead, but that is another article/investment discussion.)
In my view, the Facebook deal will have potentially long-running ramifications with respect to the technology investment landscape in general. Consider, for instance, valuation.
Many stocks are going to look a lot cheaper the minute Facebook starts trading. At the high end of the IPO price range it's already sporting a $100 billion-plus valuation (actually close to $125 billion with increased allocation), a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 25x, and frankly I don't know if the price earnings ratio is meaningful, but it would be roughly 55 for the calendar year 2011 It's not negative and that's something.

According to the latest S-1 filed with the Securities Exchange Commission, Facebook's growth is in the 45% range. However, I think this might be a bit sandbagged and I expect to see Facebook's growth accelerate again. Even so, I think it's fair to say the days of 100% growth are gone.

As a comparison, when Google (GOOG) first traded, it carried a 14x multiple to sales and was still producing 100% growth. Clearly, Google was in an earlier growth phase and frankly a better deal on a valuation perspective. However, that doesn't mean Facebook is a bad deal.

In my view, while Facebook is done growing by triple digits, I also think it may be able to grow at a fairly strong rate (say 30-50%) for an extended period of time. If I'm correct and Facebook grows strongly for an extended period of time, it will either grow into its valuation or at least justify it.

Again for some comparables, both Baidu (BIDU) and VMware (VMW) have never traded at cheap valuations but have also sustained growth and have justified their early pricing premiums. For its part, Baidu is still trading at 17x sales nearly six years following its public offering. Personally, I'd much rather invest in Facebook at 25x sales than Baidu at 17x.

The question is, can I catch Facebook anywhere close to 25x sales.

Also by Sean Udall:

After the IPO: A Strategy For Trading Facebook

A Rising Tide: 7 Stocks Poised to Benefit from the Facebook IPO

The Facebook Effect: Why Facebook Might Still Grow Its Valuation or Justify It

May 16th, 2012
Sean Udall is the author of the TechStrat Report, a tech focused newsletter. The following is a free sample. Take a free trial!
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Facebook (FB) effect (the market euphorically embracing a new, possibly disruptive technology) has been around for some time. Without it we would likely not have seen the early investment success of many other names -- think Yelp (YELP), Groupon (GRPN), Angie's List, and Zynga (ZNGA), just to name a few.

(One could argue the "success" of Groupon, but there's no doubt that the company has already made early investors a lot of money. I also think it's too early to declare Groupon dead, but that is another article/investment discussion.)
In my view, the Facebook deal will have potentially long-running ramifications with respect to the technology investment landscape in general. Consider, for instance, valuation.
Many stocks are going to look a lot cheaper the minute Facebook starts trading. At the high end of the IPO price range it's already sporting a $100 billion-plus valuation (actually close to $125 billion with increased allocation), a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 25x, and frankly I don't know if the price earnings ratio is meaningful, but it would be roughly 55 for the calendar year 2011 It's not negative and that's something.

According to the latest S-1 filed with the Securities Exchange Commission, Facebook's growth is in the 45% range. However, I think this might be a bit sandbagged and I expect to see Facebook's growth accelerate again. Even so, I think it's fair to say the days of 100% growth are gone.

As a comparison, when Google (GOOG) first traded, it carried a 14x multiple to sales and was still producing 100% growth. Clearly, Google was in an earlier growth phase and frankly a better deal on a valuation perspective. However, that doesn't mean Facebook is a bad deal.

In my view, while Facebook is done growing by triple digits, I also think it may be able to grow at a fairly strong rate (say 30-50%) for an extended period of time. If I'm correct and Facebook grows strongly for an extended period of time, it will either grow into its valuation or at least justify it.

Again for some comparables, both Baidu (BIDU) and VMware (VMW) have never traded at cheap valuations but have also sustained growth and have justified their early pricing premiums. For its part, Baidu is still trading at 17x sales nearly six years following its public offering. Personally, I'd much rather invest in Facebook at 25x sales than Baidu at 17x.

The question is, can I catch Facebook anywhere close to 25x sales.

Also by Sean Udall:

After the IPO: A Strategy For Trading Facebook

A Rising Tide: 7 Stocks Poised to Benefit from the Facebook IPO